Saturday, October 12, 2019
Structure and Policy of the European Union Essay example -- European U
Structure and Policy of the European Union The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), is the most complex example of common policy in the European Union. Introduced from 1958 to 1968 and still in existence today, it has brought controversy, dispute and political tension within the EU and with the rest of the world. It is also a remarkable example of the movement toward the unknown realm of integration in Europe. However, subsequent reforms have been slow in arrival and have not always achieved the success expected of them. With the new difficulty of enlargement, challenges will require yet more reform of the CAP. The changing situations and context of the policy will be considered in terms of its effectiveness, as will the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s. It will be seen that there is still much in need of discussion for this enormous common policy. There were many motivations for the original formation of the CAP. Europe in 1958 was quite different to the Europe we know today. With the end of WW2 still in recent memory, there were still many effects being felt. In terms of agriculture, this was seen in the protection of farmers and nation specific rules and regulations as to production, imports and exports etc. There also remained some political mistrust between the central European countries, namely France and Germany . It was a combination of these factors that led to the incarnation of the CAP . In 1958, a large proportion of the population of Europe was employed in agriculture, and the industry accounted for a significant percentage of GDP, indeed as high as 27% of the population of France and 5% of total GDP amongst the original members (Belgium, Luxemburg, Holland, France, Germany and Italy) . The agricul... ...of the CAP and shown that in many ways it was flawed from the beginning and is only now starting to become effective. It is important that the momentum of the reforms is carried into this next chapter of the Union and is allowed to be introduced to the new members with freedom and fairness. Obviously some small adjustments will have to be made, just as they were for previous accessions , but the new nations must essentially be treated as equals. The prospects for the CAP will also improve as the sector becomes more efficient and smaller, with more land being reclaimed from farming and the increases in efficiency. The CAP was unprecedented in 1958, and will not lose its position of importance so long as the members and new candidates are willing to embrace the integration for which the CAP has always stood and move forward, without prejudice, into the 21st Century.
Friday, October 11, 2019
Dehumanization of the Jews Essay
Dehumanization is the process of making a person less human by taking away the important things in their life and what makes them who they are; not only the material things but their ideas and morals as well. The Naziââ¬â¢s dehumanized millions and millions of Jews during the Holocaust. In Elie Wieselââ¬â¢s recollection of his experience in the Germanââ¬â¢s concentration camps, he explained how brutal the Naziââ¬â¢s could be, how they could take a personââ¬â¢s life away in the matter of seconds, and how they change a personââ¬â¢s outlook on life entirely. The Jews were dehumanized from the very beginning of the Holocaust and only grew to be worse. Dehumanization is the process of making a person less human by taking away the important things in their life and what makes them who they are; not only the material things but their ideas and morals as well. The Naziââ¬â¢s dehumanized millions and millions of Jews during the Holocaust. In Elie Wieselââ¬â¢s recollection of his experience in the Germanââ¬â¢s concentration camps, he explained how brutal the Naziââ¬â¢s could be, how they could take a personââ¬â¢s life away in the matter of seconds, and how they change a personââ¬â¢s outlook on life entirely. The Jews were dehumanized from the very beginning of the Holocaust and only grew to be worse. The Naziââ¬â¢s didnââ¬â¢t make anything easy for them. The Jews endured a continuous struggle that they could do nothing about. In the beginning, it all started with the Germanââ¬â¢s forcing them out of their homes and sending them to the ghettos. The Naziââ¬â¢s stripped them of their rights, took away their belongings, and removed them from their daily lives. This left them with nothing. They left behind their lives. ââ¬Å"To live? I donââ¬â¢t attach any importance to my life any more. Iââ¬â¢m alone,â⬠states an early deportee, Moshe the Beadle. (pg. 5) The Jews were ridded of all sense of security. Once they arrived at the concentration camps, they were struck with another loss of ââ¬Å"themselves. â⬠At the camp, they received tattoos. These tattoos were a series of numbers which represented ââ¬Å"whoâ⬠they were in the concentration camps. They were known as numbers, not people, numbers. A name is sacred. A name is who you are, without it, youââ¬â¢re only a being. They were people with friends and family that knew them by this name, their name. It was just another way to break away the ties of humanity. In the camps, the prisoners were treated like animals. They had to work all day long. They had to eat when they were told to eat. They had do everything they were told. If anyone misbehaved they would be shot down like dogs. Wiesel asks, ââ¬Å"Was there a single place here where you were not in danger of death? â⬠(pg. 37) A human is meant to be free, do as they please, and not live life in fear. The Jews werenââ¬â¢t allowed to have these luxuries anymore. They were worn down to nothing, which is exactly what Hitler was trying to do. Dehumanization was carried on throughout the Holocaust. The Naziââ¬â¢s wanted the Jews gone. They made them flee their homes and their personal lives. They were left with nothing. They were given numbers in replace of their own name, the name that makes them the person they grew up as. They Jewish prisoners were treated like animals. They worked, hardly ate, hardly slept, and worked some more. If someone was to do the slightest thing wrong, they were shot down. The person they used to be is gone. The Jewish werenââ¬â¢t given a chance to fight for their lives. The Naziââ¬â¢s made this impossible. They had to hold onto the little bit of hope left in their wounded hearts.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
The Twilight Saga 3: Eclipse Chapter 19. SELFISH
EDWARD CARRIED ME HOME IN HIS ARMS, EXPECTING that I wouldn't be able to hang on. I must have fallen asleep on the way. When I woke up, I was in my bed and the dull light coming through my windows slanted in from a strange angle. Almost like it was afternoon. I yawned and stretched, my fingers searching for him and coming up empty. ââ¬Å"Edward?â⬠I mumbled. My seeking fingers encountered something cool and smooth. His hand. ââ¬Å"Are you really awake this time?â⬠he murmured. ââ¬Å"Mmm,â⬠I sighed in assent. ââ¬Å"Have there been a lot of false alarms?â⬠ââ¬Å"You've been very restless ââ¬â talking all day.â⬠ââ¬Å"Allday?â⬠I blinked and looked at the windows again. ââ¬Å"You had a long night,â⬠he said reassuringly. ââ¬Å"You'd earned a day in bed.â⬠I sat up, and my head spun. The light was coming in my window from the west. ââ¬Å"Wow.â⬠ââ¬Å"Hungry?â⬠he guessed. ââ¬Å"Do you want breakfast in bed?â⬠ââ¬Å"I'll get it,â⬠I groaned, stretching again. ââ¬Å"I need to get up and move around.â⬠He held my hand on the way to the kitchen, eyeing me carefully, like I might fall over. Or maybe he thought I was sleepwalking. I kept it simple, throwing a couple of Pop-Tarts in the toaster. I caught a glimpse of myself in the reflective chrome. ââ¬Å"Ugh, I'm a mess.â⬠ââ¬Å"It was a long night,â⬠he said again. ââ¬Å"You should have stayed here and slept.â⬠ââ¬Å"Right! And missed everything. You know, you need to start accepting the fact that I'm part of the family now.â⬠He smiled. ââ¬Å"I could probably get used to that idea.â⬠I sat down with my breakfast, and he sat next to me. When I lifted the Pop-Tart to take the first bite, I noticed him staring at my hand. I looked down, and saw that I was still wearing the gift that Jacob had given me at the party. ââ¬Å"May I?â⬠he asked, reaching for the tiny wooden wolf. I swallowed noisily. ââ¬Å"Um, sure.â⬠He moved his hand under the charm bracelet and balanced the little figurine in his snowy palm. For a fleeting moment, I was afraid. Just the slightest twist of his fingers could crush it into splinters. But of course Edward wouldn't do that. I was embarrassed I'd even had the thought. He only weighed the wolf in his palm for a moment, and then let it fall. It swung lightly from my wrist. I tried to read the expression in his eyes. All I could see was thoughtfulness; he kept everything else hidden, if there was anything else. ââ¬Å"Jacob Black can give you presents.â⬠It wasn't a question, or an accusation. Just a statement of fact. But I knew he was referring to my last birthday and the fit I'd thrown over gifts; I hadn't wanted any. Especially not from Edward. It wasn't entirely logical, and, of course, everyone had ignored me anyway. . . . ââ¬Å"You've given me presents,â⬠I reminded him. ââ¬Å"You know I like the homemade kind.â⬠He pursed his lips for a second. ââ¬Å"How about hand-me-downs? Are those acceptable?â⬠ââ¬Å"What do you mean?â⬠ââ¬Å"This bracelet.â⬠His finger traced a circle around my wrist. ââ¬Å"You'll be wearing this a lot?â⬠I shrugged. ââ¬Å"Because you wouldn't want to hurt his feelings,â⬠he suggested shrewdly. ââ¬Å"Sure, I guess so.â⬠ââ¬Å"Don't you think it's fair, then,â⬠he asked, looking down at my hand as he spoke. He turned it palm up, and ran his finger along the veins in my wrist. ââ¬Å"If I have a little representation?â⬠ââ¬Å"Representation?â⬠ââ¬Å"A charm ââ¬â something to keep me on your mind.â⬠ââ¬Å"You're in every thought I have. I don't need reminders.â⬠ââ¬Å"If I gave you something, would you wear it?â⬠he pressed. ââ¬Å"A hand-me-down?â⬠I checked. ââ¬Å"Yes, something I've had for a while.â⬠He smiled his angel's smile. If this was the only reaction to Jacob's gift, I would take it gladly. ââ¬Å"Whatever makes you happy.â⬠ââ¬Å"Have you noticed the inequality?â⬠he asked, and his voice turned accusing. ââ¬Å"Because I certainly have.â⬠ââ¬Å"What inequality?â⬠His eyes narrowed. ââ¬Å"Everyone else is able to get away with giving you things. Everyone but me. I would have loved to get you a graduation present, but I didn't. I knew it would have upset you more than if anyone else did. That's utterly unfair. How do you explain yourself?â⬠ââ¬Å"Easy.â⬠I shrugged. ââ¬Å"You're more important than everyone else. And you've given me you. That's already more than I deserve, and anything else you give me just throws us more out of balance.â⬠He processed that for a moment, and then rolled his eyes. ââ¬Å"The way you regard me is ludicrous.â⬠I chewed my breakfast calmly. I knew he wouldn't listen if I told him that he had that backward. Edward's phone buzzed. He looked at the number before he opened it. ââ¬Å"What is it, Alice?â⬠He listened, and I waited for his reaction, suddenly nervous. But whatever she said didn't surprise him. He sighed a few times. ââ¬Å"I sort of guessed as much,â⬠he told her, staring into my eyes, a disapproving arch to his brow. ââ¬Å"She was talking in her sleep.â⬠I flushed. What had I said now? ââ¬Å"I'll take care of it,â⬠he promised. He glared at me as he shut his phone. ââ¬Å"Is there something you'd like to talk to me about?â⬠I deliberated for a moment. Given Alice's warning last night, I could guess why she'd called. And then remembering the troubled dreams I'd had as I'd slept through the day ââ¬â dreams where I chased after Jasper, trying to followhim and find the clearing in the maze-like woods, knowing I would find Edward there . . . Edward, and the monsters who wanted to kill me, but not caring about them because I'd already made my decision ââ¬â I could also guess what Edward had overheard while I'd slept. I pursed my lips for a moment, not quite able to meet his gaze. He waited. ââ¬Å"I like Jasper's idea,â⬠I finally said. He groaned. ââ¬Å"I want to help. I have to do something,â⬠I insisted. ââ¬Å"It wouldn't help to have you in danger.â⬠ââ¬Å"Jasper thinks it would. This is his area of expertise.â⬠Edward glowered at me. ââ¬Å"You can't keep me away,â⬠I threatened. ââ¬Å"I'm not going to hide out in the forest while you all take risks for me.â⬠Suddenly, he was fighting a smile. ââ¬Å"Alice doesn't see you in the clearing, Bella. She sees you stumbling around lost in the woods. You won't be able to find us; you'll just make it more time consuming for me to find you afterward.â⬠I tried to keep as cool as he was. ââ¬Å"That's because Alice didn't factor in Seth Clearwater,â⬠I said politely. ââ¬Å"If she had, of course, she wouldn't have been able to see anything at all. But it sounds like Seth wants to be there as much as I do. It shouldn't be too hard to persuade him to show me the way.â⬠Anger flickered across his face, and then he took a deep breath and composed himself. ââ¬Å"That might have worked . . . if you hadn't told me. Now I'll just ask Sam to give Seth certain orders. Much as he might want to, Seth won't be able to ignore that kind of injunction.â⬠I kept my smile pleasant. ââ¬Å"But why would Sam give those orders? If I tell him how it would help for me to be there? I'll bet Sam would rather do me a favor than you.â⬠He had to compose himself again. ââ¬Å"Maybe you're right. But I'm sure Jacob would be only too eager to give those same orders.â⬠I frowned. ââ¬Å"Jacob?â⬠ââ¬Å"Jacob is second in command. Did he never tell you that? His orders have to be followed, too.â⬠He had me, and by his smile, he knew it. My forehead crumpled. Jacob would be on his side ââ¬â in this one instance ââ¬â I was sure. And Jacob never had told me that. Edward took advantage of the fact that I was momentarily stumped, continuing in a suspiciously smooth and soothing voice. ââ¬Å"I got a fascinating look into the pack's mind last night. It was better than a soap opera. I had no idea how complex the dynamic is with such a large pack. The pull of the individual against the plural psyche . . . Absolutely fascinating.â⬠He was obviously trying to distract me. I glared at him. ââ¬Å"Jacob's been keeping a lot of secrets,â⬠he said with a grin. I didn't answer, I just kept glaring, holding on to my argument and waiting for an opening. ââ¬Å"For instance, did you note the smaller gray wolf there last night?â⬠I nodded one stiff nod. He chuckled. ââ¬Å"They take all of their legends so seriously. It turns out there are things that none of their stories prepared them for.â⬠I sighed. ââ¬Å"Okay, I'll bite. What are you talking about?â⬠ââ¬Å"They always accepted without question that it was only the direct grandsons of the original wolf who had the power to transform.â⬠ââ¬Å"So someone changed who wasn't a direct descendant?â⬠ââ¬Å"No. She's a direct descendant, all right.â⬠I blinked, and my eyes widened. ââ¬Å"She?â⬠He nodded. ââ¬Å"She knows you. Her name is Leah Clearwater.â⬠ââ¬Å"Leah's a werewolf!â⬠I shrieked. ââ¬Å"What? For how long? Why didn't Jacob tell me?â⬠ââ¬Å"There are things he wasn't allowed to share ââ¬â their numbers, for instance. Like I said before, when Sam gives an order, the pack simply isn't able to ignore it. Jacob was very careful to think of other things when he was near me. Of course, after last night that's all out the window.â⬠ââ¬Å"I can't believe it. Leah Clearwater!â⬠Suddenly, I remembered Jacob speaking of Leah and Sam, and the way he acted as if he'd said too much ââ¬â after he'd said something about Sam having to look in Leah's eyes every day and know that he'd broken all his promises. . . . Leah on the cliff, a tear glistening on her cheek when Old Quil had spoken of the burden and sacrifice the Quileute sons shared. . . . And Billy, spending time with Sue because she was having trouble with her kids . . . and here the trouble actually was that both of them were werewolves now! I hadn't given much thought to Leah Clearwater, just to grieve for her loss when Harry had passed away, and then to pity her again when Jacob had told her story, about how the strange imprinting between Sam and her cousin Emily had broken Leah's heart. And now she was part of Sam's pack, hearing his thoughts . . . and unable to hide her own. I really hate that part, Jacob had said. Everything you're ashamed of, laid out for everyone to see. ââ¬Å"Poor Leah,â⬠I whispered. Edward snorted. ââ¬Å"She's making life exceedingly unpleasant for the rest of them. I'm not sure she deserves your sympathy.â⬠ââ¬Å"What do you mean?â⬠ââ¬Å"It's hard enough for them, having to share all their thoughts. Most of them try to cooperate, make it easier. When even one member is deliberately malicious, it's painful for everyone.â⬠ââ¬Å"She has reason enough,â⬠I mumbled, still on her side. ââ¬Å"Oh, I know,â⬠he said. ââ¬Å"The imprinting compulsion is one of the strangest things I've ever witnessed in my life, and I've seen some strange things.â⬠He shook his head wonderingly. ââ¬Å"The way Sam is tied to his Emily is impossible to describe ââ¬â or I should say her Sam. Sam really had no choice. It reminds me of A Midsummer Night's Dream with all the chaos caused by the fairies' love spells . . . like magic.â⬠He smiled. ââ¬Å"It's very nearly as strong as the way I feel about you.â⬠ââ¬Å"Poor Leah,â⬠I said again. ââ¬Å"But what do you mean, malicious?â⬠ââ¬Å"She's constantly bringing up things they'd rather not think of,â⬠he explained. ââ¬Å"For example, Embry.â⬠ââ¬Å"What's with Embry?â⬠I asked, surprised. ââ¬Å"His mother moved down from the Makah reservation seventeen years ago, when she was pregnant with him. She's not Quileute. Everyone assumed she'd left his father behind with the Makahs. But then he joined the pack.â⬠ââ¬Å"So?â⬠ââ¬Å"So the prime candidates for his father are Quil Ateara Sr., Joshua Uley, or Billy Black, all of them married at that point, of course.â⬠ââ¬Å"No!â⬠I gasped. Edward was right ââ¬â this was exactly like a soap opera. ââ¬Å"Now Sam, Jacob, and Quil all wonder which of them has a half-brother. They'd all like to think it's Sam, since his father was never much of a father. But the doubt is always there. Jacob's never been able to ask Billy about that.â⬠ââ¬Å"Wow. How did you get so much in one night?â⬠ââ¬Å"The pack mind is mesmerizing. All thinking together and then separately at the same time. There's so much to read!â⬠He sounded faintly regretful, like someone who'd had to put down a good book just before the climax. I laughed. ââ¬Å"The pack is fascinating,â⬠I agreed. ââ¬Å"Almost as fascinating as you are when you're trying to distract me.â⬠His expression became polite again ââ¬â a perfect poker face. ââ¬Å"I have to be in that clearing, Edward.â⬠ââ¬Å"No,â⬠he said in a very final tone. A certain path occurred to me at that moment. It wasn't so much that I had to be in the clearing. I just had to be where Edward was. Cruel, I accused myself. Selfish, selfish, selfish! Don't do it! I ignored my better instincts. I couldn't look at him while I spoke, though. The guilt had my eyes glued to the table. ââ¬Å"Okay, look, Edward,â⬠I whispered. ââ¬Å"Here's the thing . . . I've already gone crazy once. I know what my limits are. And I can't stand it if you leave me again.â⬠I didn't look up to see his reaction, afraid to know how much pain I was inflicting. I did hear his sudden intake of breath and the silence that followed. I stared at the dark wooden tabletop, wishing I could take the words back. But knowing I probably wouldn't. Not if it worked. Suddenly, his arms were around me, his hands stroking my face, my arms. He was comforting me. The guilt went into spiral mode. But the survival instinct was stronger. There was no question that he was fundamental to my survival. ââ¬Å"You know it's not like that, Bella,â⬠he murmured. ââ¬Å"I won't be far, and it will be over quickly.â⬠ââ¬Å"I can't stand it,â⬠I insisted, still staring down. ââ¬Å"Not knowing whether or not you'll come back. How do I live through that, no matter how quickly it's over?â⬠He sighed. ââ¬Å"It's going to be easy, Bella. There's no reason for your fears.â⬠ââ¬Å"None at all?â⬠ââ¬Å"None.â⬠ââ¬Å"And everybody will be fine?â⬠ââ¬Å"Everyone,â⬠he promised. ââ¬Å"So there's no way at all that I need to be in the clearing?â⬠ââ¬Å"Of course not. Alice just told me that they're down to nineteen. We'll be able to handle it easily.â⬠ââ¬Å"That's right ââ¬â you said it was so easy that someone could sit out,â⬠I repeated his words from last night. ââ¬Å"Did you really mean that?â⬠ââ¬Å"Yes.â⬠It felt too simple ââ¬â he had to see it coming. ââ¬Å"So easy that you could sit out?â⬠After a long moment of silence, I finally looked up at his expression. The poker face was back. I took a deep breath. ââ¬Å"So it's one way or the other. Either there is more danger than you want me to know about, in which case it would be right for me to be there, to do what I can to help. Or . . . it's going to be so easy that they'll get by without you. Which way is it?â⬠He didn't speak. I knew what he was thinking of ââ¬â the same thing I was thinking of. Carlisle. Esme. Emmett. Rosalie. Jasper. And . . . I forced myself to think the last name. And Alice. I wondered if I was a monster. Not the kind that he thought he was, but the real kind. The kind that hurt people. The kind that had no limits when it came to what they wanted. What I wanted was to keep him safe, safe with me. Did I have a limit to what I would do, what I would sacrifice for that? I wasn't sure. ââ¬Å"You ask me to let them fight without my help?â⬠he said in a quiet voice. ââ¬Å"Yes.â⬠I was surprised I could keep my voice even, I felt so wretched inside. ââ¬Å"Or to let me be there. Either way, so long as we're together.â⬠He took a deep breath, and then exhaled slowly. He moved his hands to place them on either side of my face, forcing me to meet his gaze. He looked into my eyes for a long time. I wondered what he was looking for, and what it was that he found. Was the guilt as thick on my face as it was in my stomach ââ¬â sickening me? His eyes tightened against some emotion I couldn't read, and he dropped one hand to pull out his phone again. ââ¬Å"Alice,â⬠he sighed. ââ¬Å"Could you come babysit Bella for a bit?â⬠He raised one eyebrow, daring me to object to the word. ââ¬Å"I need to speak with Jasper.â⬠She evidently agreed. He put the phone away and went back to staring at my face. ââ¬Å"What are you going to say to Jasper?â⬠I whispered. ââ¬Å"I'm going to discuss . . . me sitting out.â⬠It was easy to read in his face how difficult the words were for him. ââ¬Å"I'm sorry.â⬠I was sorry. I hated to make him do this. Not enough that I could fake a smile and tell him to go on ahead without me. Definitely not that much. ââ¬Å"Don't apologize,â⬠he said, smiling just a little. ââ¬Å"Never be afraid to tell me how you feel, Bella. If this is what you need . . .â⬠He shrugged. ââ¬Å"You are my first priority.â⬠ââ¬Å"I didn't mean it that way ââ¬â like you have to choose me over your family.â⬠ââ¬Å"I know that. Besides, that's not what you asked. You gave me two alternatives that you could live with, and I chose the one that I could live with. That's how compromise is supposed to work.â⬠I leaned forward and rested my forehead against his chest. ââ¬Å"Thank you,â⬠I whispered. ââ¬Å"Anytime,â⬠he answered, kissing my hair. ââ¬Å"Anything.â⬠We didn't move for a long moment. I kept my face hidden, pressed against his shirt. Two voices struggled inside me. One that wanted to be good and brave, and one that told the good one to keep her mouth shut. ââ¬Å"Who's the third wife?â⬠he asked me suddenly. ââ¬Å"Huh?â⬠I said, stalling. I didn't remember having had that dream again. ââ¬Å"You were mumbling something about ââ¬Ëthe third wife' last night. The rest made a little sense, but you lost me there.â⬠ââ¬Å"Oh. Um, yeah. That was just one of the stories that I heard at the bonfire the other night.â⬠I shrugged. ââ¬Å"I guess it stuck with me.â⬠Edward leaned away from me and cocked his head to the side, probably confused by the uncomfortable edge to my voice. Before he could ask, Alice appeared in the kitchen doorway with a sour expression. ââ¬Å"You're going to miss all the fun,â⬠she grumbled. ââ¬Å"Hello, Alice,â⬠he greeted her. He put one finger under my chin and tilted my face up to kiss me goodbye. ââ¬Å"I'll be back later tonight,â⬠he promised me. ââ¬Å"I'll go work this out with the others, rearrange things.â⬠ââ¬Å"Okay.â⬠ââ¬Å"There's not much to arrange,â⬠Alice said. ââ¬Å"I already told them. Emmett is pleased.â⬠Edward sighed. ââ¬Å"Of course he is.â⬠He walked out the door, leaving me to face Alice. She glared at me. ââ¬Å"I'm sorry,â⬠I apologized again. ââ¬Å"Do you think this will make it more dangerous for you?â⬠She snorted. ââ¬Å"You worry too much, Bella. You're going to go prematurely gray.â⬠ââ¬Å"Why are you upset, then?â⬠ââ¬Å"Edward is such a grouch when he doesn't get his way. I'm just anticipating living with him for the next few months.â⬠She made a face. ââ¬Å"I suppose, if it keeps you sane, it's worth it. But I wish you could control the pessimism, Bella. It's so unnecessary.â⬠ââ¬Å"Would you let Jasper go without you?â⬠I demanded. Alice grimaced. ââ¬Å"That's different.â⬠ââ¬Å"Sure it is.â⬠ââ¬Å"Go clean yourself up,â⬠she ordered me. ââ¬Å"Charlie will be home in fifteen minutes, and if you look this ragged he's not going to want to let you out again.â⬠Wow, I'd really lost the whole day. It felt like such a waste. I was glad I wouldn't always have to squander my time with sleeping. I was entirely presentable when Charlie got home ââ¬â fully dressed, hair decent, and in the kitchen putting his dinner on the table. Alice sat in Edward's usual place, and this seemed to make Charlie's day. ââ¬Å"Howdy, Alice! How are you, hon?â⬠ââ¬Å"I'm fine, Charlie, thanks.â⬠ââ¬Å"I see you finally made it out of bed, sleepyhead,â⬠he said to me as I sat beside him, before turning back to Alice. ââ¬Å"Everyone's talking about that party your parents threw last night. I'll bet you've got one heck of a clean-up job ahead of you.â⬠Alice shrugged. Knowing her, it was already done. ââ¬Å"It was worth it,â⬠she said. ââ¬Å"It was a great party.â⬠ââ¬Å"Where's Edward?â⬠Charlie asked, a little grudgingly. ââ¬Å"Is he helping clean up?â⬠Alice sighed and her face turned tragic. It was probably an act, but it was too perfect for me to be positive. ââ¬Å"No. He's off planning the weekend with Emmett and Carlisle.â⬠ââ¬Å"Hikingagain?â⬠Alice nodded, her face suddenly forlorn. ââ¬Å"Yes. They're all going, except me. We always go backpacking at the end of the school year, sort of a celebration, but this year I decided I'd rather shop than hike, and not one of them will stay behind with me. I'm abandoned.â⬠Her face puckered, the expression so devastated that Charlie leaned toward her automatically, one hand reaching out, looking for some way to help. I glared at her suspiciously. What was she doing? ââ¬Å"Alice, honey, why don't you come stay with us,â⬠Charlie offered. ââ¬Å"I hate to think of you all alone in that big house.â⬠She sighed. Something squashed my foot under the table. ââ¬Å"Ow!â⬠I protested. Charlie turned to me. ââ¬Å"What?â⬠Alice shot me a frustrated look. I could tell she thought that I was very slow tonight. ââ¬Å"Stubbed my toe,â⬠I muttered. ââ¬Å"Oh.â⬠He looked back at Alice. ââ¬Å"So, how 'bout it?â⬠She stepped on my foot again, not quite so hard this time. ââ¬Å"Er, Dad, you know, we don't really have the best accommodations here. I bet Alice doesn't want to sleep on my floor. . . .â⬠Charlie pursed his lips. Alice pulled out the devastated expression again. ââ¬Å"Maybe Bella should stay up there with you,â⬠he suggested. ââ¬Å"Just until your folks get back.â⬠ââ¬Å"Oh, would you, Bella?â⬠Alice smiled at me radiantly. ââ¬Å"You don't mind shopping with me, right?â⬠ââ¬Å"Sure,â⬠I agreed. ââ¬Å"Shopping. Okay.â⬠ââ¬Å"When are they leaving?â⬠Charlie asked. Alice made another face. ââ¬Å"Tomorrow.â⬠ââ¬Å"When do you want me?â⬠I asked. ââ¬Å"After dinner, I guess,â⬠she said, and then put one finger to her chin, thoughtful. ââ¬Å"You don't have anything going on Saturday, do you? I want to get out of town to shop, and it will be an all-day thing.â⬠ââ¬Å"Not Seattle,â⬠Charlie interjected, his eyebrows pulling together. ââ¬Å"Of course not,â⬠Alice agreed at once, though we both knew Seattle would be plenty safe on Saturday. ââ¬Å"I was thinking Olympia, maybe. . . .â⬠ââ¬Å"You'll like that, Bella.â⬠Charlie was cheerful with relief. ââ¬Å"Go get your fill of the city.â⬠ââ¬Å"Yeah, Dad. It'll be great.â⬠With one easy conversation, Alice had cleared my schedule for the battle. Edward returned not much later. He accepted Charlie's wishes for a nice trip without surprise. He claimed they were leaving early in the morning, and said goodnight before the usual time. Alice left with him. I excused myself soon after they left. ââ¬Å"You can't be tired,â⬠Charlie protested. ââ¬Å"A little,â⬠I lied. ââ¬Å"No wonder you like to skip the parties,â⬠he muttered. ââ¬Å"It takes you so long to recover.â⬠Upstairs, Edward was lying across my bed. ââ¬Å"What time are we meeting with the wolves?â⬠I murmured as I went to join him. ââ¬Å"In an hour.â⬠ââ¬Å"That's good. Jake and his friends need to get some sleep.â⬠ââ¬Å"They don't need as much as you do,â⬠he pointed out. I moved to another topic, assuming he was about to try to talk me into staying home. ââ¬Å"Did Alice tell you that she's kidnapping me again?â⬠He grinned. ââ¬Å"Actually, she's not.â⬠I stared at him, confused, and he laughed quietly at my expression. ââ¬Å"I'm the only one who has permission to hold you hostage, remember?â⬠he said. ââ¬Å"Alice is going hunting with the rest of them.â⬠He sighed. ââ¬Å"I guess I don't need to do that now.â⬠ââ¬Å"You're kidnapping me?â⬠He nodded. I thought about that briefly. No Charlie listening downstairs, checking on me every so often. And no houseful of wide-awake vampires with their intrusively sensitive hearing. . . . Just him and me ââ¬â really alone. ââ¬Å"Is that all right?â⬠he asked, concerned by my silence. ââ¬Å"Well . . . sure, except for one thing.â⬠ââ¬Å"What thing?â⬠His eyes were anxious. It was mind-boggling, but, somehow, he still seemed unsure of his hold on me. Maybe I needed to make myself more clear. ââ¬Å"Why didn't Alice tell Charlie you were leaving tonight?â⬠I asked. He laughed, relieved. I enjoyed the trip to the clearing more than I had last night. I still felt guilty, still afraid, but I wasn't terrified anymore. I could function. I could see past what was coming, and almost believe that maybe it would be okay. Edward was apparently fine with the idea of missing the fight . . . and that made it very hard not to believe him when he said this would be easy. He wouldn't leave his family if he didn't believe it himself. Maybe Alice was right, and I did worry too much. We got to the clearing last. Jasper and Emmett were already wrestling ââ¬â just warming up from the sounds of their laughter. Alice and Rosalie lounged on the hard ground, watching. Esme and Carlisle were talking a few yards away, heads close together, fingers linked, not paying attention. It was much brighter tonight, the moon shining through the thin clouds, and I could easily see the three wolves that sat around the edge of the practice ring, spaced far apart to watch from different angles. It was also easy to recognize Jacob; I would have known him at once, even if he hadn't looked up and stared at the sound of our approach. ââ¬Å"Where are the rest of the wolves?â⬠I wondered. ââ¬Å"They don't all need to be here. One would do the job, but Sam didn't trust us enough to just send Jacob, though Jacob was willing. Quil and Embry are his usual . . . I guess you could call them his wingmen.â⬠ââ¬Å"Jacob trusts you.â⬠Edward nodded. ââ¬Å"He trusts us not to try to kill him. That's about it, though.â⬠ââ¬Å"Are you participating tonight?â⬠I asked, hesitant. I knew this was going to be almost as hard for him as being left behind would have been for me. Maybe harder. ââ¬Å"I'll help Jasper when he needs it. He wants to try some unequal groupings, teach them how to deal with multiple attackers.â⬠He shrugged. And a fresh wave of panic shattered my brief sense of confidence. They were still outnumbered. I was making that worse. I stared at the field, trying to hide my reaction. It was the wrong place to look, struggling as I was to lie to myself, to convince myself that everything would work out as I needed it to. Because when I forced my eyes away from the Cullens ââ¬â away from the image of their playfighting that would be real and deadly in just a few days ââ¬â Jacob caught my eyes and smiled. It was the same wolfy grin as before, his eyes scrunching the way they did when he was human. It was hard to believe that, not so long ago, I'd found the werewolves frightening ââ¬â lost sleep to nightmares about them. I knew, without asking, which of the others was Embry and which was Quil. Because Embry was clearly the thinner gray wolf with the dark spots on his back, who sat so patiently watching, while Quil ââ¬â deep chocolate brown, lighter over his face ââ¬â twitched constantly, looking like he was dying to join in the mock fight. They weren't monsters, even like this. They were friends. Friends who didn't look nearly as indestructible as Emmett and Jasper did, moving faster than cobra strikes while the moonlight glinted off their granite-hard skin. Friends who didn't seem to understand the danger involved here. Friends who were still somewhat mortal, friends who could bleed, friends who could die. . . . Edward's confidence was reassuring, because it was plain that he wasn't truly worried about his family. But would it hurt him if something happened to the wolves? Was there any reason for him to be anxious, if that possibility didn't bother him? Edward's confidence only applied to one set of my fears. I tried to smile back at Jacob, swallowing against the lump in my throat. I didn't seem to get it right. Jacob sprang lightly to his feet, his agility at odds with his sheer mass, and trotted over to where Edward and I stood on the fringe of things. ââ¬Å"Jacob,â⬠Edward greeted him politely. Jacob ignored him, his dark eyes on me. He put his head down to my level, as he had yesterday, cocking it to one side. A low whimper escaped his muzzle. ââ¬Å"I'm fine,â⬠I answered, not needing the translation that Edward was about to give. ââ¬Å"Just worried, you know.â⬠Jacob continued to stare at me. ââ¬Å"He wants to know why,â⬠Edward murmured. Jacob growled ââ¬â not a threatening sound, an annoyed sound ââ¬â and Edward's lips twitched. ââ¬Å"What?â⬠I asked. ââ¬Å"He thinks my translations leave something to be desired. What he actually thought was, ââ¬ËThat's really stupid. What is there to be worried about?' I edited, because I thought it was rude.â⬠I halfway smiled, too anxious to really feel amused. ââ¬Å"There's plenty to be worried about,â⬠I told Jacob. ââ¬Å"Like a bunch of really stupid wolves getting themselves hurt.â⬠Jacob laughed his coughing bark. Edward sighed. ââ¬Å"Jasper wants help. You'll be okay without a translator?â⬠ââ¬Å"I'll manage.â⬠Edward looked at me wistfully for one minute, his expression hard to understand, then turned his back and strode over to where Jasper waited. I sat down where I was. The ground was cold and uncomfortable. Jacob took a step forward, then looked back at me, and a low whine rose in his throat. He took another half-step. ââ¬Å"Go on without me,â⬠I told him. ââ¬Å"I don't want to watch.â⬠Jacob leaned his head to the side again for a moment, and then folded himself on to the ground beside me with a rumbling sigh. ââ¬Å"Really, you can go ahead,â⬠I assured him. He didn't respond, he just put his head down on his paws. I stared up at the bright silver clouds, not wanting to see the fight. My imagination had more than enough fuel. A breeze blew through the clearing, and I shivered. Jacob scooted himself closer to me, pressing his warm fur against my left side. ââ¬Å"Er, thanks,â⬠I muttered. After a few minutes, I leaned against his wide shoulder. It was much more comfortable that way. The clouds moved slowly across the sky, dimming and brightening as thick patches crossed the moon and passed on. Absently, I began pulling my fingers through the fur on his neck. That same strange humming sound that he'd made yesterday rumbled in his throat. It was a homey kind of sound. Rougher, wilder than a cat's purr, but conveying the same sense of contentment. ââ¬Å"You know, I never had a dog,â⬠I mused. ââ¬Å"I always wanted one, but Rene's allergic.â⬠Jacob laughed; his body shook under me. ââ¬Å"Aren't you worried about Saturday at all?â⬠I asked. He turned his enormous head toward me, so that I could see one of his eyes roll. ââ¬Å"I wish I could feel that positive.â⬠He leaned his head against my leg and started humming again. And it did make me feel just a little bit better. ââ¬Å"So we've got some hiking to do tomorrow, I guess.â⬠He rumbled; the sound was enthusiastic. ââ¬Å"It might be a long hike,â⬠I warned him. ââ¬Å"Edward doesn't judge distances the way a normal person does.â⬠Jacob barked another laugh. I settled deeper into his warm fur, resting my head against his neck. It was strange. Even though he was in this bizarre form, this felt more like the way Jake and I used to be ââ¬â the easy, effortless friendship that was as natural as breathing in and out ââ¬â than the last few times I'd been with Jacob while he was human. Odd that I should find that again here, when I'd thought this wolf thing was the cause of its loss. The killing games continued in the clearing, and I stared at the hazy moon.
Reviews on Financial Risk Management Essay
The definition and types of financial risk III. Risk management and the theoretical foundation IV. The process of financial risk management V. The challenges faced by the modern financial risk management theories ?Abstract? Financial risks are exposures of uncertainties for those participants in financial market. Financial risks can be divided into four categories: market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and operational risk. Risk management has become more and more crucial for a market participant to survive in the highly competitive market. As the development of the global financial market, there are many phenomena that cannot be explained by traditional financial risk management theories. These phenomena have accelerated the development of behavioral finance and economic physics. The financial management theories have already improved a lot over the past decades, but still facing some challenges. Therefore, this report will review some important issues in the financial risk management; introduce some theoretical foundation of financial risk management, and discuss the challenges faced by the modern financial risk management. I. Introduction Financial risk is one of the basic characteristics of financial system and financial activities. And financial risk management has become an important component of the economic and financial system since the occurrence of financial in human society. Over the past few decades, economic globalization spread across the world with the falling down of the Bretton Woods system. Under above background, the financial markets have become even more unstable due to some significant changes. Many events happened during the decades, including the ââ¬Å"Black Mondayâ⬠of the year 1987, the stock crisis in Japan in 1990, the European monetary crisis in 1992, the financial storm of Asia in 1997, the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, and the most recent global financial crisis triggered in the year 2008. All these changes brought enormous destruction of the smooth development of the world economy and the financial market. At the same time, they also helped people realized the necessity and urgency of the financial risk management. Why did the crisis happened and how to avoid the risk as much as possible? These questions have been endowed more significant meaning for the further development of the economy. Therefore, this report will review some important issues in the financial risk management; introduce some theoretical foundation of financial risk management, and discuss the challenges faced by the modern financial risk management. II. The Definition and Types of Financial Risk The word ââ¬Å"riskâ⬠itself is neutral, which means we cannot define risk a good thing or bad. Risk is one of the internal features of human behavior, and it comes from the uncertainty of the future results. Therefore, briefly speaking, risk can be defined as the exposure to uncertainty. In the definition of risk, there are two extremely important factors: first is uncertainty. Uncertainty can be considered as the distribution of the possibility of one or more results. To study risk, we need to have a precise description about the possibility of the risk. However, from the point view of a risk manager, the possible result in the future and the characteristic of the possibility distribution are usually unknown, so subjective factors are frequently needed when making decisions. The second factor is the exposure to uncertainty. Different human activities were influenced at different level to the same uncertainty. For example, the future weather is uncertain to everyone, but the influence it has over agriculture can be far deeper than that over finance industry or other industry. Based on the above description about risk, we could have a clearer definition of financial risk. Financial risk is the exposure to uncertainty of the participants in the financial market activities. The participants mainly refer to financial institutions and non-financial institutions, usually not including ndividual investors. Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stockholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. (Karen A. Horcher). Financial risk can be divided into the following types according to the different sources of risk. A. Market risk. Market riskà is theà riskà that the value of a portfolio, either an investment portfolio or a trading portfolio. It will decrease due to the change in value of the market risk factors. The four standard market risk factors are stock prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and commodity prices. The influence of these market factors have over the financial participants can be both direct and indirect, like through competitors, suppliers or customers. B. Credit risk. Credit riskà is an investorââ¬â¢s risk of loss arising from a borrower who does not make payments as promised. Such an event is called aà default. Almost all the financial transactions have credit risk. Recent years, with the development of the internet financial market, the problem of internet finance credit risk also became prominent. C. Liquidity risk. Liquidity riskà is the risk that a given security or asset cannot be traded quickly enough in the market to prevent a loss. Liquidity risk arises from situations in which a party interested in trading anà assetà cannot do it because nobody in theà marketà wants to trade that asset. Liquidity risk becomes particularly important to parties who are about to hold or currently hold an asset, since it affects their ability to trade. D. Operational risk. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or from external events. Nowadays, the study and management of operational risk is getting more attention. The organizations are trying to perfect their internal control to minimize the possibility of risk. At the same time, the mature theory of other subjects, such as operational research methods, are also introduced to the management of operational risk. Overall, financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainty resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stockholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues. III. Risk Management and the Theoretical Foundation Financial market participantââ¬â¢s attitude towards risk can be basically divided into the following categories. A. Avoid risk. It is irrational for some companies to think that they can avoid the financial risks though their careful management because of the following reasons. First of all, risk is the internal feature of human activities. Even though it doesnââ¬â¢t have direct influence, it could generate indirect influence though the competitors, suppliers or customers. Moreover, sometimes it might be a better choice for the manager of the company to accept risk. For example, when the profit margin of the company is higher than the market profit margin, the manager can increase the value of the company by using financial leverage principle. Obviously, it will be harder to increase the value of a company if the manager is always using the risk avoidance strategy. B. Ignore risk. Some participants tend to ignore the existence of risks in their financial activities, thus they will not take any measures to manage the risk. According to a research of Loderer and Pichler, almost all the Swedish multinational companies ignored the exchange rate risk that they are facing. C. Diversify risk. Many companies and institutions choose to diversify risk by putting eggs into different baskets, which means reaching the purpose of lower risk by holding assets of different type and low correlation. And the cost is relatively low. However, as to small corporations or individuals, diversifying risk is somehow unrealistic. Meanwhile, modern asset portfolio theory also tells us that diversifying risk could only lower the unsystematic risk, but not systematic risk. D. Manage risk. Presently, most people have realized that financial risk cannot be eliminated, but it could get managed though the financial theory and tools. For instance, participants can break down the risk they are exposed to by using financial engineering methods. After keeping some necessary risk, diversify the rest risk to others by using derivatives. But why do we need financial risk management? In other words, what is the theoretical foundation of the existence of financial risk management? The early financial theory argues that financial risk management is not necessary. The Nobel Prize winner Miller ;amp; Modigliani pointed out that in a perfect market, financial measures like hedging cannot influence the firmââ¬â¢s value. Here the perfect market refers to a market without tax or bankruptcy cost, and the market participants own the complete information. Therefore, the managers do not need to worry about financial risk management. The similar theory also says that even though there will be slight moves in the short run, in the long run, the economy will move relatively stable. So the risk management that is used to prevent the loss in short term is just a waste of time and resource. Namely, there is no financial risk in the long run, so the financial risk management in the short run will just offset the firmââ¬â¢s profits, and therefore reduce the firmââ¬â¢s value. However, in reality, financial risk management has already roused more and more attention. The need for risk management theory and measures soar to unprecedented heights for both the regulator and participants of the financial market. Those who think risk management is necessary argue that the need for risk management is mainly based on the imperfection of the market and the risk aversion manager. Since the real economy and the financial market are not perfect, the manager can increase a firmââ¬â¢s value by managing risk. The imperfection of the financial market is shown in the following aspects. First, there are various types of tax existing in the real market. And these taxes will influence the earning flow of the firm, and also the firmââ¬â¢s value. So the Modigliani ;amp; Miller theory does not work for the real economy. Secondly, there is transaction cost in the real market. And the smaller the transaction is, the higher the cost. Last but not least, the financial market participants cannot obtain the complete information. Therefore, firms can benefit from risk management. First, the firm can get stable cash flow, and thus avoid the external financing cost caused by the cash flow shortage, decrease the fluctuation range of the stock and keep a good credit record of the company. Secondly, a stable cash flow can guarantee that a company can invest successfully when the opportunity occurs. And it gets some competitive advantage compared to those who donââ¬â¢t have stable cash flow. Thirdly, since a firm possesses more resource and knowledge than an individual, which means it could have more complete information and manage financial risks more efficiently. If the manager of a firm is risk aversion, he can improve the managerââ¬â¢s utility through financial risk management. Many researches show that the financial risk management activities have close relation to the managerââ¬â¢s aversion to risk. For example, Tufano studied the risk management strategy of American gold industry, and found that the risk management of firms in that industry has close relation to the contract that the managers signed about reward and punishment contracts. The managers and employees are full of enthusiasm about risk management is because that they put great amount of invisible capital in the firm. The invisible capital includes human capital and specific skills. So the financial risk management of the firms became some natural reaction to protect their devoted assets. In conclusion, although controversy is still going on about the financial risk management, there is no doubt that the theory and tools of financial risk management is adopted and used by market participants, and continue to be enriched and innovated. IV. The Process of Financial Risk Management The process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, tax, commodity, and corporate finance. Companyââ¬â¢s financial risk management can be divided into three major steps, namely identification or confirmation risk, measure risk and manage risk. Letââ¬â¢s illustrate it using the market risk as an example. First, confirm the market risk factors that have a significant influence to the company, and then measure the risk factors. At present, the frequently used measure of market risk approach can be divided into the relative measure and absolute measure. A. The relative measure method It mainly measures the sensitivity relationship between the market factors fluctuations and financial asset price changes, such as the duration and convexity. B. The absolute measure methods It includes variance or standard deviation and the absolute deviation indicator, mini max and value at risk (VaR). VaR originated in the 1980sââ¬â¢, which is defined the maximum loss that may occur within a certain confidence level. In mathematics, VaR is expressed as an investment vehicle or a combination of profit and loss distribution of ? -quantile, which stated as follows: Pr ( ? p ;lt;= ââ¬â VaR ) = ? , where, ? p said that the investment loss in the holding period within the confidence level (1 ââ¬â? ). For example, if the VaR of a company is 100 million U. S. ollars in 95% confidence level of 10 days, which means in the next 10 days, the risk of loss that occurred more than 1 million U. S. dollars may of only 5%. Through this quantitative measure, company can clear its risks and thus have the ability to carry out the next step targeted quantitative risk management activities. (Guanghui Tian) The last step is management risk. Once the company identified the major risks and have a quantitative grasp of these risks through risk-measurement methods, those companies can use various tools to manage the risk quantitatively. There are different types of risk for different companies, even the same company at different stages of development. So it requires specific conditions for the optimization of different risk management strategies. In general, when the company considers its risk exposure more than it could bear, the following two methods can be used to manage the risk. The first way is changing the companyââ¬â¢s operating mode, to make the risk back to a sustainable level. This method is also known as ââ¬Å"Operation Hedgeâ⬠. Companies can adjust the supply channels of raw materials, set up production plants in the sales directly or adjust the volume of inflow and outflow of foreign exchange and other methods to achieve above purpose. The second way is adjust the companyââ¬â¢s risk exposure through financial markets. Companies can take advantage of the financial markets. Companies can take advantage of the financial markets wide range of products and tools to hedge its risk, which means to offset the risk that the company may face through holding a contrary position. Now various financial derivative instruments provide a sufficient and diverse selection of products. Derivative products are financial instruments whose value is attached to some other underlying assets. These basic subject matters may be interest rates, exchange rates, bonds, stocks, stock index and commodity prices, but also can be a credit, the weather and even a snowfall in some ski showplace. Common derivatives include forward contracts, swaps, futures and options and so on. V. The Challenges Faced by the Modern Financial Risk Management Theory Over the recent years, as the focus of risk management hifts from a control function to one of global financial optimization, the concern shifts from modeling the behavior of engineered contracts in selected markets to modeling the evolution of the entire economy. This change of focus calls for a vastly improved ability to model the time evolution of economic quantities. (Sergio Focardi). While those who do risk management are interested in predicting if assets will go up or down, the over-riding interest is in the relationship in movement to different assets. Though linear methods such as variance-covariance help to understand the co-movements of markets, a different set of tools is necessary to better manage risk. (Jose Scheinkman). Paradigms such as learning, nonlinear dynamics and statistical mechanics will affect how risk ââ¬â from market and credit risk to operational risk ââ¬â is managed. While the first attempts to use some of these tools were focused on predicting market movements, it is now clear that these methodologies might positively influence many other aspects of economics. For instance, they could be useful in understanding phenomena such as price formation, the emergence of bankruptcy chains, or patterns of boom-and-bust cycles. Lars Hansen, Homer J. Livingston professor of economics at the University of Chicago, remarks that these new paradigms will bring to asset pricing and risk management at enhanced understanding once the implicit underlying fundamentals are better understood. He says ââ¬Å"What needed is a formal specification of the market structure, the microeconomic uncertainty, and the investor preferences that is consistent with the posited nonlinear models. Commenting on the need to bring together the pricing of financial assets and the real economy, he notes that an understanding of whatââ¬â¢s behind pricing leads to a better understanding of how assets behave. ââ¬Å"For risk management decisions that entail long-run commitments,â⬠he observes, ââ¬Å"it is particularly important to understand, beyond a purely statistical model, what is governing the underlying movements in security prices. â⬠Blake LeBaron, professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Medison, observes that there is now more interest in macro moves than in individual markets. But traditional macroeconomics typically provides only point forecasts of macro aggregates. In the risk management context, a simple point forecast is not sufficient; a complete validated probabilistic framework is needed to perform operations such as hedging or optimization. One is after an entire statistical decision-making process. The big issue is the distinction between forecasts and decisions. (Blake LeBaron) Arriving at an entire statistical decision-making process implies reaching a better scientific explanation of economic reality. New theories are attempting to do so through models that reflect empirical data more accurate than traditional models. These models will improve our ability to forecast economic and financial phenomena. The endeavor is not without its challenges. Our ability to model the evolution of the economy is limited. Prof. Scheinkman notes that unlike in a physical system where better data and more computing power can lead to better predictions, in social systems when a new level of understanding is gained, agents start to use new methods. Prof. Scheinkman says ââ¬Å"Less ambitious goals have to be set. Gaining an understanding of the broad features of how the structure of an economic system evolves or of relationships between parts of the system might be all that can be achieved. Prof. Scheinkman remarks that we might have to concentrate on finding those patterns of economic behavior that are not destroyed, at least not in the short-run, by the agent learning process. VI. Conclusion The theory foundation of modern financial risk management is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, which notes that financial market is a linear balanced system. In this system, investors are rational, and they make their investment decision with rational expectations. This hypothesis shows that the changing of the future price of financial assets has no relation with the history information, and the return on assets should obey normal distribution. However, the study of economic physics shows that financial market is a very complicated nonlinear system. At the same time, behavioral finance tells us that investors are not all rational when making decisions. They usually cannot completely understand the situation they are facing unlike hypothesized. And most times they will have cognitive bias, when they use experience or intuition as the basis of making decisions. It will lead to irrational phenomena like overreaction and under reaction when reflected on investment behaviors. Therefore, it will be meaningful to study how to improve the existing financial risk management tools, especially how to introduce the nonlinear science and behavior study into the measurement of financial risk.
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Philosophy of Law Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words
Philosophy of Law - Essay Example Although, I depict much abhorrence for Purple Shirts, it is necessary that we respect their philosophy that failed to permit people to present their own views on national matters. An additional difference between our current systems is that the law is applicable to everyone despite the fact that it might fail to favor some people. On contrary, Purple Shirts disregarded those laws not working in their favor. This disregarded those laws comprising of objectives not approved by them. Similarly, viewing their practices to be illegal and not acting in accordance with the law would imply that we practice exactly what we condemn. As my first deputy advises, we need to desist most of the publicââ¬â¢s ideas on what to do, and develop a program that will resolve this dispute without allowing the public to intervene (Fuller). As highlighted by the second deputy, it would be a difficult undertaking to arraign the grudge informers to the court for their actions. Although he fails to understand how such a system of governance can be lawful, we cannot dispute the fact that they considered themselves lawful. As my deputy has argued, it would be absurd to consider Purple Shirtââ¬â¢s system of governance legal. Reviewing activities that Purple Shirts engaged into, acts as a clear indication that it was not a legal system. It is apparent that instead of enacting a government that adhered to laws; it allowed different categories of war to occur for which the grudge informer was among them. Therefore, our efforts to consider such acts as criminal would mean that we also endeavor to examine any other practice of those times that did not adhere to the law. The fact that... In consideration to the current regime utilizing a constitution that considers most of the Purple Shirtââ¬â¢s actions unlawful, an individual may consider my decision of not listening to peoplesââ¬â¢ woes on what ought to be done to the grudge informers absurd. My argument to support such a decision is that, we cannot consider its actions as lawful, or unlawful. It is evident that what we consider, unlawful during the current regime may be was lawful during the Purple Shirtââ¬â¢s era. Therefore, in as much we are unwilling to address all that occurred during that regime, and which we consider unlawful according to the constitution, it is imperative that we leave the grudge informers alone. This would give us ample time to examine the different economic sectors, therefore, improving them accordingly. If there ever existed a non-democratic regime as highlighted in the current constitution is the Purple Shirtââ¬â¢s governance. The degree at which it practiced its evil deeds was so immense to such that judges who depicted contrasting ideologies suffered death. However, the most recent elections saw the defeat of such a regime, therefore, implementing a democratic government that was lawful. During the elections, I became the minister to implement justice. It was brought into my knowledge about the existence of a category of individuals identified as the grudge informers. These people reported those believed to have engaged in what was considered unlawful by such a regime. Therefore, alongside my panel of deputies, I have recommended on what to do to these people. It would be appropriate not to do anything to such people, since it would be expensive, as well bring about hatred.
Monday, October 7, 2019
Markets and Marketing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words
Markets and Marketing - Essay Example Socio-cultural factors include health consciousness, age distribution, population growth, individualsââ¬â¢ career tastes, and safety concerns. Statistical data show that UKââ¬â¢s birth rate has increased over the last two years. This increase in birth rate adds value to Tiny Tees. While analysing current UK society, it seems that people are highly concerned about the health of their family members. Hence, people tend to purchase quality cloth materials for their toddlers. Furthermore, trends indicate that people buy more number of baby clothes in order to keep their babies away from the greater risk of getting infections. Secondly, a detailed study of technological factors may aid Tom to assess the risks and opportunities arising out of the UK technological industry. Generally, marketers consider technological factors including research and development activities, technological growth, automation, and innovations. It is obvious that UKââ¬â¢s technological sector has undergon e tremendous changes over the last two decades and hence the countryââ¬â¢s technological sector offers a range of potential opportunities to Tiny Tees. The UK government encourages and supports technological innovations. Similarly, automation is very effective in the UK and it has been still developing at a greater pace. UKââ¬â¢s well developed transportation sector also offers better scope to Tomââ¬â¢s planned acquisition project. In short, technological factors can greatly contribute to the positive effects of the proposed acquisition. Thirdly, assessment of economical factors is necessary for Tom to understand the financial scope of the proposed project. Researchers have identified that economical factors including income growth rate, interest rates, inflation rates, and exchange rates play a pivotal role in determining the market success of a company. The global financial crisis 2008 negatively affected the economic growth of United Kingdom despite the monetary measures taken by the Bank of England. The profitability decline (given in Table 1) of the Tiny Tees can be greatly attributed to this economic crisis. Even though the UK economy is rapidly improving its growth status, it has not been completely recovered from the impacts of global recession yet. Therefore, the STEP analysis may assist Tom to forecast the future economic/growth status of the Tiny Teens effectively. Finally, it is necessary for Tom to analyse the political status of the market in which the planned project is going to be launched. The UKââ¬â¢s political spectrum seems to be stable. ââ¬Å"Faster economic developmentâ⬠has become the mantra of the UK politicians and hence they try to promote countryââ¬â¢s business sector by every means. As a result, entrepreneurs and other small scale traders get increased financial as well as technical assistance from governmental agencies. This situation will certainly contribute to the development of new ventures. Since the p lanned acquisition project comes under the category of small scale business, Tom would obtain greater support and assistance from the UK government. The UK governmentââ¬â¢s current business policies also provide the marketer with extensive future expansion opportunities. In short, the STEP analysis will help Tom to determine whether or not to acquire Tiny Teens. Question 2 To define, ââ¬Å"
Sunday, October 6, 2019
Optical systems Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3750 words
Optical systems - Essay Example This report also discusses the future prospects of this technology. As shown in figure 1, plastic optical fiber is huge central step-index fiber and its diameter is equal to 1 mm (millimeter). Hence, its huge size allows it to easily combine lots of light coming from various connectors and sources with less precision. In this scenario, the prices of standard connector are between 10% and 20% for glass fibers as well as closure is also as easy as cutting with a razor blade. In view of the fact that it is coated with the plastic so it makes it easy and rugged to install and connect deprived of fear of loss or damage. (The FOA, 2008; Paschotta, 2014) However, one of the major drawback of this media is that its performance is much lower than glass fiber. Additionally, its bandwidth is limited as well as it has a connection loss of approximately 0.15-0.2 dB per meter at 650 nm. On the other hand, it works fine when it is used for running short connection, for instance within a place for desktop connections up to 50 meters or inside of instruments. In this scenario, its most excellent usage is seen in automobile industry in which it has expanded a position with the innovative Flexray and MOST networks (The FOA, 2008; Paschotta, 2014). Its proven effectiveness for small distance connections make it an excellent choice for desktop LAN connections. For such connections, it can be installed in a few minutes with negligible training and tools. In future, it can be expected that its bandwidth will exceed to considerable level. However, its cost is reasonable as compared to copper. In fact, standards groups are currently looking at various choices for plastic fiber optics. It is believed that POF can be the following practical desktop connection (The FOA, 2008). Normally, the transmission is carried through fiber optic systems in the digital format. In other words, this transmission is sent and
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